On Monday, Germany’s conservative party, led by Friedrich Merz, pledged to swiftly establish a government following their national election victory. However, they now face challenging coalition negotiations and a potentially obstructive parliament due to the rise of far-right and far-left parties. Merz, a longtime rival of former Chancellor Angela Merkel, has committed to tightening migration policies, reducing taxes to stimulate economic growth, strengthening Germany’s leadership in Europe, and increasing aid for Ukraine.
Mainstream parties have ruled out working with the AfD, which is monitored by Germany’s security services on suspicion of extremism and is backed by U.S. figures, including billionaire Elon Musk. Finding enough partners willing to form a coalition will be difficult, but some may make concessions if the AfD’s support for policies such as cuts to welfare spending and immigration curbs is high.
A three-way coalition like the one that collapsed last November under Social Democratic (SPD) Chancellor Olaf Scholz was always unlikely, given significant incompatibilities between the parties. Merz dodged a bullet, however, as the left-wing liberal Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance, formerly known as the Left Party, narrowly missed the five percent threshold needed to enter parliament. He will need only one partner for an outright majority in the lower house of parliament.
Even so, the prospect of a lengthy caretaker period looms large for Germany, Europe’s ailing largest economy. Businesses demand help to remain globally competitive, and the public is pessimistic about their living standards. The AfD’s strong showing reflects deep frustration over the lack of economic progress and the sense that the government has lost touch with ordinary people.
During the campaign, AfD leader Alexander Gauland used his victory to urge Germans to “vote for real change.” Many of the country’s voters are still reeling from the financial crisis and increasingly distrust politicians.
In a TV debate late on Sunday, Merz hailed his election win and said he would fight “tough” coalition negotiations in which he would seek to establish communication with President Donald Trump, whose threats of a trade war and attempt to fast-track a ceasefire deal for Ukraine have unsettled markets and angered his European allies. Merz, a longtime rival of Merkel, also vowed to crack down on irregular migration. Despite the election result, experts doubt that he will be able to achieve his goals. They say he will have to do much horse-trading with his potential partners and that a new government will likely be weak and unwieldy.
They also note that the AfD has little governing experience and may struggle to deliver on its promises. Moreover, the election results have shown that Germany has an unusually fragmented and highly diverse political landscape. Regional variations mean that no single party can control the Bundestag, the country’s upper house of parliament. Protests over corruption, sexual harassment, and the sexual abuse of children have racked the country. The AfD, with its anti-Muslim rhetoric and a desire to close off European borders, has tapped into a deep reservoir of discontent.
